The plan is to create a pacific NATO and all the pieces are coming together. NATO will fuse with AUKUS, QUAD, SQUAD, etc and create a "defensive" alliance in the pacific. The US will continue trying to get ASEAN into this alliance as well. The ultimate aim is deterrence not getting into a shooting war, the US wants China to bend the knee.
That could be it, but I'm failing to see the significance of that as the US already has a defense treaty with the rest of AUKUS, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, etc.
Forming that into a single organization now could be nothing more than theatrics and would be seen very negatively and warily in the region.
Not to mention bringing the European NATO in, who could not help much tangibly/militarily the US, but would decimate their image and perception in the region to the lowest possible level. If you follow the ASEAN, they are against forming regional blocks as much as possible.
Also, China is ASEAN's biggest trade partner, investor, infrastructure provider, and technology transfer source - with some exceptions like the Philippines who choose to confront China.
At this point, it is not a question of whether the ASEAN will join the US against China, but whether ASEAN will allow the US to attack China and further escalate the situation in the region without a response from them.
They are also certain to officially deny and close their air spaces and territorial waters to the US Navy in the case that the US goes to invade China or tries to disrupt regional shipping, might even employ asymmetrical warfare against them just like Houthis, but much more effective.
It is just that in this case it will be probably China who is going to direct this with intel and missiles/drones, instead of Iran in the case of Houthis.
THE MYTHS IN WESTERN MEDIA ABOUT BLOCKADE OF STRAITS OF MALACCA BY AUKUS OR QUAD DURING A CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA.
As was obvious during ASEAN - Australia Special Summit held in Melbourne from 4 -6 March 2024 where Australia who is a member of QUAD and AUKUS acting as an agent of the US was trying to lead ASEAN leaders into condemning China by mentioning what the Philippine was doing to provoke China in the contested water of South China Sea.
So, what was ASEAN ministers’ reaction? 1) Malaysia wanted to discuss about condemning Israeli’s action in the Gaza Genocide. Australia was not willing to discuss it as it will be contrary to the instructions it has received from the US. So, they reach a compromise and call for a ceasefire and more humanitarian support. [Take note that PM Albanese changed his position on 3 Apr 2024 when an Australian aid worker Zomi Frankcom working for World Central Kitchen was murdered by Israeli drone strike. From this exchange it is obvious that Albanese does not consider Palestinians to be human and worthy of protection. The deaths of 30,000 Palestinians at the hand of the Israeli is nothing but the death of 1 Australian is an outrage.]
2) Australia wanted ASEAN to condemn China for its actions to defend its sovereignty when provoked by Philippines Coast Guards or fishing vessels in front of Bong Bong but ASEAN ministers expected this and instead called for “all countries to avoid any unilateral actions that endanger peace, security and stability in the region”. So, China was not named in this statement which is not what Australia wanted as it was instructed by the US to get ASEAN to specifically condemn China.
3) The Australian dared not mention AUKUS (US, UK & Australia) Security Pact to contain China as they know that any militarization and proliferation of nuclear weapons are frown upon by ASEAN as ASEAN wants Asia to be a region of peace. Anyway the earlier part about condemning China did not went well so asking ASEAN to endorse AUKUS will likely lead to more rejections.
4) Australia mentioned the QUAD (US, Australia, Japan & India) in passing with regards to Vaccine Partnership and not as an alliance to contain China as they need to package the QUAD in a benign manner.
So, from the above we can say that ASEAN has a mind of its own and will not take sides in any US – China conflicts. ASEAN will not allow the region to be militarized by foreign forces as ASEAN is one of the fastest growing regions in the world and it can only come about through trade that is brought about by peace and stability in the region. ASEAN is part of the largest free trade zone in the world the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) comprising of ASEAN, Australia, Japan, S Korea that is anchored by China – one of the fastest growing major economies in the world which contributes 30% of world GDP growth in 2023.
With regards to closing of the Straits of Malacca by QUAD, AUKUS or any funny acronym alliances in times of conflict with China – ASEAN will not allow it as the Straits of Malacca is a major artery of world trade as 40% of world trade passes though it, and closing it will have severe impact on world economy and on ASEAN itself. If any acronym alliances were to use military force to close the Straits of Malacca, then it will become an enemy of ASEAN – ASEAN will then partner with China by opening its naval ports and airports to Chinese destroyers, drones and jet fighters to ensure Freedom of Navigation in the Straits of Malacca via joint patrol.
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