China's SCS Strategy Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Irrespective of the dispute live goes on and Vietnam dependent on China will only grow with time
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Despite strains, Vietnam and China forge closer economic ties
By My Pham and Matthew Tostevin,Reuters 1 hour 55 minutes ago

By My Pham and Matthew Tostevin

HANOI (Reuters) - Tensions are high on the South China Sea as Vietnam faces off against China over their overlapping maritime claims.

But for the boatmen on the junks cruising the calm expanse of Vietnam's Ha Long Bay, another growing Chinese presence in the region is very welcome indeed.

"More than half our tourists are Chinese now," said Nguyen Van Phu, 33, who has spent six years working on the boats that chug between the bay’s spectacular stone towers. "If they stopped coming it would be a big problem, if not a disaster."

The number of Chinese tourists in Vietnam has surged this year, just one sign of the growing economic ties between two long-time enemies. Chinese investment in Vietnam is also increasing rapidly, as is trade between the two countries.

But while tourists, trade and investment are being welcomed, they also present a challenge for a fiercely independent country like Vietnam, which has been wary of China’s growing influence in the region.

"The rising economic dependence on China makes it more difficult for Vietnam to decide how far to confront China on the South China Sea," said Nguyen Khac Giang, a researcher at the Vietnam Economics and Policy Research Institution.

Vietnam would suffer far more than China economically in the event of political instability given its smaller size, he said.

China exports more goods to Vietnam than any other country in Southeast Asia, sending textiles to be made into shirts and sneakers, and electronic components for mobile phones and large flat-panel displays. Those completed products are exported around the world, as well as back to China.

Vietnam also makes electronics components for factories in China, and exports computers for Chinese consumers.

Manufacturers see Vietnam as an attractive base, with wages as little as a third of those in coastal regions of China, according to employment consultants.

And while proximity has historically been a source of friction between the two countries - they fought a border war as recently as 1979 and armed clashes flared for years afterwards - for manufacturers it's a boon.

"We strategically invested in Vietnam because of its geographical advantage – closer to China and hence lower cost on materials, transportation and relatively shorter production lead time," said Bosco Law, chief executive of the Hong Kong-based Lawsgroup. The company makes clothes for brands such as Gap, whose global operations include scores of outlets in China.

Businesses contacted by Reuters declined to talk openly about the risks for them of tension between Vietnam and China.

Chinese trade and investment has surged across Southeast Asia in recent years as companies search out new bases for manufacturing and consumers for their goods.

China has also invested in infrastructure and plans to pour development funds into Southeast Asia as part of its sprawling Belt and Road initiative.

That has already had a political effect.

Big recipients of Chinese investment such as Cambodia and Laos are promoting China's line on the South China Sea at regional meetings.

President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, meanwhile, has cited Chinese investment pledges as he softens his country's stance on its maritime disputes with China.

MISTRUST

Tensions between Beijing and Hanoi have been high since mid-June, when Chinese pressure forced Vietnam to suspend oil drilling on a block that overlaps the line China says marks its claim to almost all the South China Sea.

As Vietnam has emerged as the most vocal regional opponent of China's maritime claims in Southeast Asia, it has drawn Beijing's ire. Its growing defense links to the United States, Japan and India also make China suspicious.

The Vietnamese government has also had to contend with public pressure at home. A row over Chinese oil drilling in disputed waters in the South China Sea in 2014 sparked anti-China riots in Vietnam in which foreign factories thought to be Chinese were set on fire, before the rig was removed.

Tourism dipped in the aftermath, but quickly bounced back. Trade has also risen steadily since then.

Exports to China jumped nearly 43 percent to $13 billion in the first half of 2017 from a year earlier, according to customs data. Imports rose more slowly, climbing 16 percent.

Chinese tourist arrivals, meanwhile, soared 60 percent to nearly 1.9 million in the first half of 2017 to account for around one third of all foreign visitors.

For the most part, the government has welcomed the boost from Chinese tourism, as it strives to meet a 6.7 percent target for annual economic growth.

INVESTMENTS WELCOMED

Vietnam is also welcoming Chinese investments, if cautiously.

"We should be careful but at the same time we should take advantage," said Nguyen Mai, the president of Vietnam's Association of Foreign Invested Enterprises.

The biggest foreign direct investors in Vietnam have long been from South Korea and Japan, particularly in the electronics sector. More than 100,000 Vietnamese work for Samsung alone in Vietnam.

However, Chinese investment is growing quickly, nearly doubling last year to almost 8 percent of total foreign direct investment. Investment went into solar panel and plastics factories, among other areas.

Direct U.S. investment accounts for about 2 percent of the total so far this year; the United States is also Vietnam's second-largest trade partner.

For a graphic on Vietnam-China trade, click:
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VIETNAM-TRADE.jpg

(Additional reporting by Mai Nguyen)
 

delft

Brigadier
CSIS analysis on SCS trade

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It's a little confusing, but if I'm reading this correctly then

1. They estimate that $3370 Billion worth of goods pass through the SCS, rather than the $5300 Billion figure previously cited.

2. Of this total, $1842 Billion is directly related to China, which would mean that China has more trade passing through the SCS than everyone else combined. (The $1842 Billion figure comes from the combined China+HongKong total. Numbers are 598+874 plus 230+140)

Therefore China has a keen interest in maintaining commercial freedom of navigation in the SCS.

----

The other key statistic is below



So in summary

1. The smaller littoral nations of the SCS (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia) depend on the free flow of SCS shipping much more than China does.
2. But China simply dominates the trade flows in the SCS through sheer volume.
3. The USA only has a minor trading interest in the SCS. ($208 Billion out of $3370 Billion, rather than the $1200 Billion figure of $5300 billion previously cited. That is a huge difference)


I don't know when this was released exactly, but these results are a huge deal in any authoritative analysis of the SCS.
I quote the China Power article:
For instance, much of Europe’s trade with China rounds the Cape of Good Hope before crossing the Indian Ocean and entering the South China Sea via the Strait of Malacca.
Doesn't he know about the Suez canal opened in 1869? How reliable is this article?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I quote the China Power article:

Doesn't he know about the Suez canal opened in 1869? How reliable is this article?

Generally I would rate CSIS as very reliable, given that it is one of the main 4 think tanks in Washington DC.

I missed the part about the Europe-China trade bypassing Suez.

It does sound like a mistake as even the largest container ships should be able to transit the Suez Canal, and there isn't much (if any?) bulk carrier traffic between Europe-China.

But the overall effect just means that there is some more China-Europe trade flowing through the SCS.
 
now noticed (dated September 14, 2017)
China accuses ADF of encircling it amid military exercises
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Australia has been accused of “encircling” China, in an article published by the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, The People’s Daily.

The analysis article discusses Australia’s involvement in the ongoing Indo-Pacific Endeavour multinational military exercises, which started on September 4.

The exercises are likely to involve 1200 Australian Defence Force personnel and HMAS Adelaide.

The article suggested that because Australian ships would cross the South China Sea and the East China Sea, they were directed at China. “Excluding Vietnam, the Australian Army fleet will visit almost all countries across the South China Sea and the East China Sea that surround China,” the article’s author wrote.

“What does it mean that Australia’s military exercise route is ‘encircling’ China?”

Australia was only participating in the exercises to please the US, the article argued.

It quoted an academic from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Gao Cheng, who said he agreed Australia was simply a “loudspeaker” set up in the Asia Pacific by a US radio station.

“He further pointed out that Australia belongs to the ‘first echelon’ in the Asia-Pacific region in its support for the United States. It often acts as the ‘assistant police’ for the United States in the region,” the article’s author wrote.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is closely affiliated with the China’s state council.

The People’s Daily article said Australia’s navy had recently attracted more attention and was holding “a large number” of joint exercises with Japan and the US.

“With the recent increase in the amount of attention Australia’s navy is receiving, the Australian Army is holding a large number of joint exercises with the United States and Japan each year to enhance Australia’s international influence,’’ it said.

The exercises, however, involve several nations, including Brunei, Cambodia, the Federated States of Micronesia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, The Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and East Timor.

At the end of August the Australian, Chinese and American armies conducted joint Army exercises in Cairns.

Experts have suggested the United States under Donald Trump is unlikely to adopt a new Asia policy despite setting out a schedule for patrols in South China Sea.

Australia has been encouraged to build regional alliances with growing expectations of a decline of US influence in the region.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
A New Chinese Drone Could Help Beijing Assert Its Claims In The South China Sea
1-1FS1091540127.jpg

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China commands an undisputed upper hand in Asia’s biggest maritime sovereignty dispute. It has used at least 3,200 acres of
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to create artificial islands, some for military hardware, in the South China Sea’s Paracel and Spratly archipelagos. It declares annual fishing moratoriums and passes ships through waters claimed by four wary yet militarily weaker Southeast Asian countries: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and
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.

To keep its lead in the dispute, Beijing relies on superior technology such as radar systems and a
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that can scan the seabed for life and geothermal movement. China plans someday to set up an
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to collect data on natural resources and for national security.

Now a private company in Shanghai says it’s selling an amphibious drone, possibly a first anywhere for commercial use. The
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, UVS Intelligence System, references the South China Sea on a map to help advertise its U650 drone as the ideal unmanned transport aircraft.

To keep its lead in the dispute, Beijing relies on superior technology such as radar systems and a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that can scan the seabed for life and geothermal movement. China plans someday to set up an
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to collect data on natural resources and for national security.

Now a private company in Shanghai says it’s selling an amphibious drone, possibly a first anywhere for commercial use. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, UVS Intelligence System, references the South China Sea on a map to help advertise its U650 drone as the ideal unmanned transport aircraft.

South-China-Sea-02.jpg


Data via the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; Design by Aliza Grant, Forbes Staff


The 5.85-meter-long drone can access the sea’s islets and waters with little wear-and-tear, meaning “low” maintenance costs, the website says. The drones can airdrop materials and emergency supplies in “environments where takeoff and landing are impossible,” it adds. The carbon-fiber drone flies up to 180 kph for 15 hours and carries as much as 250 kilograms of cargo.



If this UAV proves to cost less to operate than traditional solutions, it should find a market with Chinese oil drillers, equipment providers (radars or telecoms, for example) and any official missions required to transport cargo around the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea. China calls more than 90% of the sea its own. But most islands are still undeveloped, meaning no airstrip or much other infrastructure. Some are barely more than sand dunes. Other countries with stakes in the region could potentially buy U650s too, as China is eager to
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. But China is the
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and the keenest to leverage high-tech. The drone comes from a Chinese firm, too, and it might work better than competing UAVs for military use.

“There is a focus on much larger systems (in China) than those being developed by U.S. companies interested in cargo,” says Phil Finnegan, corporate analysis director with the Teal Group, an American aerospace and defense market research firm. Peers of the U650 include the Russian-made
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and the Blackwing UAVs supplied to the U.S. navy by AeroVironment.

The Chinese amphibious drone’s advertised specifications would help with mapping and environmental surveys, says Kelvin Wong, weapons and equipment editor for Jane’s International Defence Review in Singapore. Both are key to harvesting resources, such as the sea's abundant fisheries and fossil fuels. Armed forces could use the vehicles for surveillance, logistics, battle damage assessment and “light attacks,” Wong says. Two electro-optical turrets hanging from the U650’s wings, as shown in a
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, give it special ability to pick up images.
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and Japanese vessels sometimes appear to show the South China Sea is still open to all, angering China. Japan may
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to Southeast Asian claimants -- just in case.

“With its amphibious take-off and landing ability, the U650 is inherently suited for maritime security and support missions, being able to be launched and recovered quickly out at sea…to provide speedy surveillance or as a light transport for critical components and supplies,” Wong says.

UVS has sold its amphibious drones so far to a Chinese express delivery company and a client in Southeast Asia, the China Daily report says. For units of the
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, the state-run news website says, it can do reconnaissance and strikes “thanks to its ability to carry radar, sonar or missiles.”

1-1FS1092249E2.jpg
 

Lethe

Captain
Generally I would rate CSIS as very reliable, given that it is one of the main 4 think tanks in Washington DC.

It might be useful for Americans and foreigners seeking to critique American policy, but it is extraordinarily unlikely to actually affect American policy, because CHINA THREAT THEORY as it pertains to the SCS has always been a smokescreen for America's real motives and anxieties.

Washington's problem is two-fold:
1. Stuff is happening and we can't control it and other nations can see that we can't control it but we are the indispensable nation and so we must control it and other nations must see that we are strong because they must fear us because we are Americans and blessed by God to impose virtue upon the world.

2. China's activities in the region, coupled with ongoing growth in naval capabilities, etc. could eventually threaten USN's ability to shut down Chinese trade. The communists are escaping from their box! (Acknowledging that this is unlikely to result in the end of the world takes us back to the first point, i.e. it conflicts with an entrenched politico-cultural worldview).

Essentially Washington wants to wind the clock back to 1996 and every step away from that comfortable past produces anxiety, denial, anger, etc. following the 'stages of grief'.

Reality-based observations like: "the SCS is actually not very important to the US" or "China has no interest in obstructing SCS trade" have no purchase in this debate. As with the election of Donald Trump, what we are seeing here is a psychodrama being played out on an national scale.
 
Last edited:

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It might be useful for Americans and foreigners seeking to critique American policy, but it is extraordinarily unlikely to actually affect American policy, because CHINA THREAT THEORY as it pertains to the SCS has always been a smokescreen for America's real motives and anxieties.

Washington's problem is two-fold:
1. Stuff is happening and we can't control it and other nations can see that we can't control it but we are the indispensable nation and so we must control it and other nations must see that we are strong because they must fear us because we are Americans and blessed by God to impose virtue upon the world.

2. China's activities in the region, coupled with ongoing growth in naval capabilities, etc. could eventually threaten USN's ability to shut down Chinese trade. The communists are escaping from their box! (Acknowledging that this is unlikely to result in the end of the world takes us back to the first point, i.e. it conflicts with an entrenched politico-cultural worldview).

Essentially Washington wants to wind the clock back to 1996 and every step away from that comfortable past produces anxiety, denial, anger, etc. following the 'stages of grief'.

Reality-based observations like: "the SCS is actually not very important to the US" or "China has no interest in obstructing SCS trade" have no purchase in this debate. As with the election of Donald Trump, what we are seeing here is a psychodrama being played out on an national scale.

All very true.

But the only response is to simply repeat the facts until it sinks in as the truth.
 
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