Japan economics thread.

[FairAndUnbiased]

500 years is pushing it. It's only in the 1800s Japan really became something after the Meiji era.

In the Sengoku Jidai which is supposed to be the warring states/three kingdom period of Japan, the first guy to unite the country was Oda Nobunaga. In the time where samurai were at their prime, Oda said fuk that, I'm gonna use peasants and arm them with Portuguese guns or something to kill all the Samurai. And he did which shows that the great unifier of Japan did it by not relying on native Japan stuff. That kinda shows why Japan wasn't much before they modernized using western concepts.

To be fair China is doing the same right now using western stuff to advance. But isn't that exactly why Japan is in a lot of pain now? Before only they modernized in Asia. But now their neighbours have also done so, what advantage does Japan have now?

Meiji Japan was actually advancing slower relative to the west than China is today.

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In 1935 Imperial Japan's nominal GDP per capita was ~12-14% that of the US ($64 vs. $540) with 2/3 the population (105 million vs. 132 million). And that was only ethnic Japanese. Ethnic Koreans in the empire had way lower GDP per capita.

So their overall GDP was something like 1/10 that of the US.

Imperial Japan way overestimated themselves. Invading a country with 4x the population and equal GDP (ROC had 400 M and $18 GDP per capita) was extremely dumb. And then starting a war with a country with literally 10x the GDP, at the same time, is even dumber.

 

[jli88]

Changing parties is not going to change their economic prospects, as China provides very strong competition in semiconductor and EV industries over the next couple of years. Japan currency will crumble even faster.

It actually can change a few things. All evidence suggests that LDP is thoroughly in cahoots with the Industrialists, who don't want wages to increase, to have more social spending and so on. Opposition might just change that.

Obviously, doesn't mean that Japan is going to be 3rd or even 5th largest economy, but at least change situation for the better.

Japan doesn't have a fundamental problem, it is just reverting to its historical mean, a small insignificant island east of 中国. Most of the Japanese people I've talked to in Japan also don't see their country like you do, perhaps they have already come to terms with fate. Don't impose your fantasies on what Japan can or should be onto Japanese people, just like how we don't like westerners imposing neoliberalism onto Chinese people.

Belittling people isn't way to their heart. 中国 is in a contest of hearts and minds, so take that into note. Other than that, Japan is still an industrial and technological behemoth.

Japan also crucially serves as a warning and cautionary tale for 中国 to learn from.

 

[Wenren]

Here's a Twitter account worth following to get a feel for the domestic discussion:

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You can see that the mood is quite bleak given the decline in real wages + living standards, compounded by adverse demographics. Contrast that with Gideon Rachman's superficial, almost flippant, take on the situation: non-paywall

What passes for journalism and op-ed in the Financial Times and Economist is shockingly poor these days.

 

[Wenren]

Here's some of the commentary to Gideon's article. Don't think that's visible in the non-paywall section.

 

[gelgoog]

TSMC's factory in Japan is meant to be used by Japanese chip designers. Most if not all of the production of the factory has already been allocated to Japanese companies like Sony. As for "Micron in Japan" that is basically the company formerly known as Elpida (merger of Hitachi and NEC DRAM business). They still retain their memory design offices in Japan.

Japanese chip design companies decided to bring their chip manufacture to Japan. And this was done with the joint venture with TSMC.
This was considered lower risk than designing their own processes and fab. But this is also being done with the Rapidus venture.

So the idea these are some kind of razor thin margins simple manufacture business where Japanese staff are treated as menial servants is bollocks.

 

[Maikeru]

Got to say these figures are surprisingly low in USD terms and can't be far above PRC figures now:

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[Eventine]

Meiji Japan was actually advancing slower relative to the west than China is today.

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In 1935 Imperial Japan's nominal GDP per capita was ~12-14% that of the US ($64 vs. $540) with 2/3 the population (105 million vs. 132 million). And that was only ethnic Japanese. Ethnic Koreans in the empire had way lower GDP per capita.

So their overall GDP was something like 1/10 that of the US.

Imperial Japan way overestimated themselves. Invading a country with 4x the population and equal GDP (ROC had 400 M and $18 GDP per capita) was extremely dumb. And then starting a war with a country with literally 10x the GDP, at the same time, is even dumber.

Rather than say they over estimated themselves, it is more accurate to say they saw the geographic limits of their power & picked the best opportunity possible to try and change their fate.

The 1900s was not like the 2000s. Colonial empires with mercantilist policies ruled the world. There was no option to “invest in other countries” or “free trade” or any such fantasy. Your wealth as a nation was much more closely linked to your military’s ability to conquer more lands.

In that respect, Japan likely looked at the world & saw that it was at the best position it was ever going to be given its neighbors’ poverty & backward level of development, and its own relative demographic strength. Japan is less than 1/10th the size of the US yet had nearly the same population in 1900s. It must’ve known that could not be sustained given the US’s vast resources and land. Similarly with China, Japan was only 1/4th the population in 1900s vs 1/11th today. It must’ve known that once China got its **** in order, there would’ve been no way for Japan to compete.

 

[siegecrossbow]

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[Minm]

Rather than say they over estimated themselves, it is more accurate to say they saw the geographic limits of their power & picked the best opportunity possible to try and change their fate.

The 1900s was not like the 2000s. Colonial empires with mercantilist policies ruled the world. There was no option to “invest in other countries” or “free trade” or any such fantasy. Your wealth as a nation was much more closely linked to your military’s ability to conquer more lands.

In that respect, Japan likely looked at the world & saw that it was at the best position it was ever going to be given its neighbors’ poverty & backward level of development, and its own relative demographic strength. Japan is less than 1/10th the size of the US yet had nearly the same population in 1900s. It must’ve known that could not be sustained given the US’s vast resources and land. Similarly with China, Japan was only 1/4th the population in 1900s vs 1/11th today. It must’ve known that once China got its **** in order, there would’ve been no way for Japan to compete.

They had already changed their fate. With the annexation of Korea and Taiwan and rule over shandong province they had already significantly expanded their territory. After taking over inner Manchuria they were at the peak of their power. That's when they overestimated themselves with the full invasion of China. Starting a fight with the French empire, the British empire and the US at the same time as also fighting China meant that they went all in and bet all of their gains from the preceding 50 years.

If they had simply sat out the whole war, Japan could really have become a superpower and compete with the Soviet union and America. But they believed themselves to be superior and couldn't imagine losing to China or America. And so they reverted back from their 50 years in the sun as a great power back to their traditional place as a vassal